Duke goes for win No. 9 against Fish

Baseball Betting Lines

07/04/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Zach Duke goes after his ninth win of the season this evening when the Pittsburgh Pirates continue their three-game series with the Florida Marlins at Land Shark Stadium.

Duke has been one of the best left-handers in the league this season, but has lost two of his last three starts. Duke absorbed the loss on Monday against the Chicago Cubs, despite a decent effort, as he allowed three runs and seven hits in seven innings to drop him to 8-6 on the season to go along with a 3.13 earned run average.

Pittsburgh, which has scored one run or less a major league-high 20 times, has managed just five total runs in Duke's six losses.

The 26-year-old hurler has struggled against the Marlins over the course of his career, going 0-2 with a 5.68 ERA in four starts.

Run support wasn't a problem for the Pirates in the opener of this set on Friday, as Brandon Moss and Ramon Vazquez hit early home runs, and Pittsburgh shut down Hanley Ramirez, on the way to a 7-4 win.

Charlie Morton (1-1) pitched six shutout innings to get the victory, as the Pirates snapped a two-game skid but defeated the Marlins for the fifth straight time.

"[Morton] made some pitches a couple of different times and we couldn't get any runs," Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez said.

Moss, Vazquez and Jack Wilson each had two RBI in the win.

Chris Volstad (5-8) was saddled with the loss after surrendering three hits and four runs over three innings. He's dropped five of his last six decisions.

John Baker smacked a two-run homer and had three RBI for the Marlins, who were coming off a three-game sweep of the Nationals, but fell a game behind the Phillies for first place in the tight NL East.

Ramirez came into the game having driven in at least one run in a franchise record 10 straight contests, but finished 0-for-4. The streak by Ramirez was the longest for a shortstop since Carlos Guillen had an 11-game surge for the 2007 Tigers. It was also the longest streak ever for a National League shortstop, since RBI became an official statistic in 1920.

Getting the call for the Fish this evening will be 24-year-old left-hander Andrew Miller, who is 2-4 with a 4.45 ERA. Miller's winless streak reached four starts on Sunday against the Tampa Bay Rays, as he was charged with the loss after surrendering five runs and eight hits in 6 1/3 innings.

Miller lost to the Pirates back on April 20 in his only other appearance against them.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

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